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Fed officials will be busy this week. Sure, the September rate decision is over, but the media junket is in full swing. Chairman Powell is scheduled to speak at 1:55 pm EST on Monday.
He’s not alone. Fed heads Cook, Barkin, Bostic, Collins, Hammack, Musalem, Bowman, Kashkari, and Williams all have speeches on the docket this week. Pay attention to what they say because any insight into what happens when the Fed meets next in November could move the market.
Get ready. Jobs data lands this week, and everyone will be watching. The Fed’s rate cuts were partly, arguably largely, due to worry that unemployment is creeping higher. That’s true, but we remain at 4.2% unemployment – that’s pretty darn good.
Related: Jobs and Fed officials may rock stocks this week
If job losses tick higher, recession chatter will grow. Of course, economists will be parsing the numbers from ADP on Wednesday, jobless claims on Thursday, and unemployment on Friday for clues as to whether the Fed will go big again in November. If jobs data disappoints, the odds of another half-point cut could climb.
I’ve hesitated to say this at the risk of sounding hyperbolic, but with last week’s big GDP revisions, there is no denying it: This is among the best performing economies in my 35+ years as an economist. Economic growth is rip-roaring, with real GDP up 3% over the past year.…
— Mark Zandi (@Markzandi) September 29, 2024
Lower the bar. Evercore ISI and Truist did a wholesale reset on energy stocks, dropping price targets for most big E&P companies. The culprit? Increased fear that lower oil prices will last longer than previously thought. For example, Truist cut its ExxonMobil (XOM) target to $117 from $121, while Evercore lowered its target on Occidental Petroleum (OXY) to $63 from $67.
Related: The 10 best investing books, according to our stock market pros
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