The health of the U.S. labor market will be in focus this week, ahead of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting. November payrolls data and the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will be the highlights. It will be a relatively calm week on the earnings calendar, with third-quarter earnings season in the rearview mirror.
Economist consensus calls for 175,000 new nonfarm payrolls in November, after a gain of 150,000 in October. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 3.9%. That data will come on Jobs Friday.
Also of interest to economists and investors will be Tuesday’s JOLTS for October. That’s expected to show 9.4 million unfilled positions on the last day of the month, down slightly from September.
Together, the two data points would suggest a still-tight labor market in the U.S., but less dramatically so than earlier this year.
Other economic data out this week will include the Institute for Supply Management’s Services Purchasing Managers’ Index for November on Tuesday and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment index for December on Friday.
Earnings reports this week begin with
AutoZone
and
J.M. Smucker
on Tuesday, followed by
Campbell Soup
and
Brown-Forman
on Wednesday. On Thursday,
Broadcom
and
Dollar General
will report.
Monday 12/04
GitLab
reports third-quarter fiscal-2024 results.
Tuesday 12/05
AutoZone, J.M. Smucker,
MongoDB,
NIO, and
Toll Brothers
announce earnings.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Economists forecast 9.35 million job openings on the last business day of October, roughly 200,000 less than in September. There are currently 1.5 open positions for every unemployed worker, down from a peak of two in March of 2022, but still historically elevated.
The Institute for Supply Management releases its Services Purchasing Managers’ Index for November. Expectations are for a 51.8 reading, which would equal the October data.
Wednesday 12/06
Brown-Forman, Campbell Soup, Chewy, and
Veeva Systems
release quarterly results.
ADP releases its National Employment Report for November. Consensus estimate is for a gain of 125,000 private-sector jobs, 12,000 more than in October. The median annual pay raise in October for workers who changed jobs was 8.4%, the smallest increase since July 2021. Pay growth for those who remained at their jobs was 5.7%, the slowest pace of growth since October 2021.
Thursday 12/07
Broadcom, Cooper Cos., Dollar General, and
lululemon athletica
hold conference calls to discuss earnings.
Friday 12/08
The BLS releases the jobs report for November. Economists forecast an increase of 175,000 in nonfarm payrolls, 25,000 more than in October. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.9%. Jobs growth has slowed this year to a still-solid average of 238,800 a month after two years of average monthly gains of slightly more than 500,000.
The University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment index for December. The consensus call is for a 61.5 reading, roughly even with the November data. Consumers’ expectations for the year-ahead inflation was 4.5% in November, the highest level since April.
—Dan Lam contributed to this article
Write to Nicholas Jasinski at nicholas.jasinski@barrons.com
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