Another commodity currency – the Kiwi dollar (NZD) – will face a CPI test today, ING’s FX strategist Francesco Pesole notes.
NZD can find buyers in the 0.6000-0.6050 region
“The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut by 50bp this month on the view that inflation has decisively turned lower while growth concerns are building. That is also the basis for markets high conviction call on another half-point reduction in December.”
“While headline CPI should move back close to the 2.0% target range mid-point, we see risks that non-tradeable inflation ends up coming in hotter than the RBNZ hopes. Ultimately, NZD may also get some help from inflation today, as markets may no longer be certain about a 50bp December move.”
“NZD/USD remains vulnerable to some Trump hedges ahead of the election, but an improved rate profile can help the Kiwi dollar find buyers in the 0.6000-0.6050 region.”
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