The DXY dollar index is holding gains and it is not hard to see why. US rates are being repriced modestly higher as the market shifts away from pricing a December Fed rate cut, ING’s Chris Turner notes.
DXY to remain bid in its new 106-107 range
“Just 8bp of easing is now priced. At the same time, the market is bracing for Trump 2.0 and developments in overseas economies are far from encouraging. Equally, one-week USD deposits now pay 4.61% annually, second only to GBP (4.74%) in the G10 space. It is not a surprise then to see investors and corporates holding onto their USD investments.”
“On Monday we mentioned that the choice of the next US Treasury Secretary could prove a banana skin for US asset markets. However, it now looks (according to betting markets) that ex-Fed member Kevin Warsh is the front-runner for this role. He would be seen as a safe pair of hands given his experience at the Fed and liaison role with Wall Street after the 2008-09 financial crisis.”
“For today, we doubt US data will move markets although investors will again be watching whether any rise in the weekly jobless claims numbers portends a weaker November NFP report (released 6 December). Expect DXY to remain bid in its new 106-107 range with continued focus on developments in Ukraine and European speakers today.”
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