Economists at Wells Fargo expect an explicit Argentine Peso (ARS) devaluation.
USD/ARS to reach 750.00 by year-end
We expect another large Peso devaluation to materialize before the end of this year. For now, we are assuming a devaluation of 20%, but note that risks are tilted toward a more sizable depreciation. Should president-elect Javier Milei opt for completely removing all capital controls and Dollar-buying restrictions, the Peso could experience a much more significant depreciation than we bake into our current forecast.
We forecast the USD/ARS exchange rate to reach 750.00 by the end of 2023 and 1,750.00 by the end of next year.
Should controls be fully lifted, which is a rising possibility, the official USD/ARS exchange rate could hit 1,000 by year-end or early 2024.
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