- Mexican Peso advance is capped by the Greenback as the economy in the United States (US) remains solid.
- The OECD predicts a slowdown in Mexico’s economy, largely due to a cooling US economy impacting Mexican exports.
- Fed Waller’s dovish remarks limit the USD/MXN advance, as traders anticipate over 100 bps rate cuts from Fed in 2024.
Mexican Peso (MXN) retreats against the US Dollar (USD) in an early trading session on Wednesday after the US Department of Commerce revealed the economy in the United States (US) is growing above trend, which could warrant further action by the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed). Consequently, the USD/MXN bounces off its daily lows and trades near the highs of the 17.15/17.20 range, up 0.12% on the day.
Mexico’s economic docket remains light. On Thursday, October’s unemployment rate is expected to be 2.8%, a tick lower than in September. Meanwhile, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) released the 2024 economic outlook for Mexico, in which the economy is expected to expand at a slower pace of 2.5%, down from a 3.4% growth rate registered in 2023. The report cites the moderation of the US economy, which would likely dampen Mexico’s exports. The OECD suggests the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) monetary policy must remain restrictive, as inflation is estimated to dip to 3.9% and 3.2% in 2024 and 2025, respectively.
Across the border, the US economy grew faster than expected, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported, sponsoring a leg-up in the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the Greenback versus six currencies. The DXY climbs 0.23%, up at 102.95, a headwind for the USD/MXN.
Recently, US Federal Reserve officials had crossed newswires. Atlanta’s Fed President Raphael Bostic said he sees slower growth and falling inflation pressures in the current monetary policy stance. At the same time, Richmond’s Fed President Thomas Barkin commented he is “skeptical” that inflation is on its way to the Fed’s goal, while keeping the option of higher interest rates.
Daily digest movers: Mexican Peso weakens as the USD/MXN rises to 17.15 following US data
- The US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q3 rose by 5.2% QoQ, exceeding estimates of 5%.
- The US Advancement Goods Trade Balance registered a deficit of $89.8 billion in October, widening $3.5 billion from the $86.3 deficit in September.
- On Tuesday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, a former hawk, commented that there are good economic arguments that rates could be lowered if inflation continues falling for several months.
- A day after Fed Waller’s comments showed interest rates, traders expect 115 basis points of rate cuts by the US central bank in 2024.
- On November 27, Banxico’s Deputy Governor, Jonathan Heath, commented that core prices must come down more, adding that one or two rate cuts may come next year, but “very gradually” and “with great caution.”
- On November 24, a report revealed the economy in Mexico grew as expected in the third quarter on an annual and quarterly basis, suggesting the Bank of Mexico would likely stick to its hawkish stance, even though it opened the door for some easing.
- Mexico’s annual inflation increased from 4.31% to 4.32%, while core continued to ease from 5.33% to 5.31%, according to data on November 23.
- The financial markets’ narrative that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is done hiking rates has kept the Greenback on the backfoot, but today, it has found some relief.
- Data published earlier this month showed prices paid by consumers and producers in the US dipped, increasing investors’ speculations that the Fed’s tightening cycle has ended.
- A Citibanamex poll suggests that 25 of 32 economists expect Banxico’s first rate cut in the first half of 2024.
- The poll shows “a great dispersion” for interest rates next year, between 8.0% and 10.25%, revealed Citibanamex.
- The same survey revealed that economists foresee headline annual inflation at 4.00% and core at 4.06%, both readings for the next year, while the USD/MXN exchange rate is seen at 19.00, up from 18.95, toward the end of 2024
Technical Analysis: Mexican Peso loses strength though the USD/MXN bias remains bearish below the 200-day SMA
Even though the USD/MXN reached a new week high of 17.22, buyers barely cling to minuscule gains. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is about to cross below the 100-day SMA, both at around 17.34, signaling the downtrend is gaining steam. If the pair drops below 17.05, the next support would be the 17.00 figure, ahead of challenging the year-to-date (YTD) low of 16.62.
Conversely, if buyers achieve a daily close above the November 21 high at 17.26, that would put into play a test of the confluence of the 20 and 100-day SMAs at 17.34. Further upside is seen at the 200-day SMA at 17.58.
Banxico FAQs
The Bank of Mexico, also known as Banxico, is the country’s central bank. Its mission is to preserve the value of Mexico’s currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN), and to set the monetary policy. To this end, its main objective is to maintain low and stable inflation within target levels – at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%.
The main tool of the Banxico to guide monetary policy is by setting interest rates. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. The rate differential with the USD, or how the Banxico is expected to set interest rates compared with the US Federal Reserve (Fed), is a key factor.
Banxico meets eight times a year, and its monetary policy is greatly influenced by decisions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Therefore, the central bank’s decision-making committee usually gathers a week after the Fed. In doing so, Banxico reacts and sometimes anticipates monetary policy measures set by the Federal Reserve. For example, after the Covid-19 pandemic, before the Fed raised rates, Banxico did it first in an attempt to diminish the chances of a substantial depreciation of the Mexican Peso (MXN) and to prevent capital outflows that could destabilize the country.
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