- Gold weakens on Friday as Donald Trump’s re-election continues to impact the precious metal.
- This reverses a short-term bounce following the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 0.25%.
- Technically, XAU/USD corrects back within a short-term downtrend.
Gold (XAU/USD) falls about half a percent to trade in the $2,680s on Friday, extending the short-term bearish mini trend it has been in since it rolled over on Halloween. The decline comes amid market expectations that President-elect Donald Trump’s economic policies will be positive for the US Dollar (USD), as higher tariffs and tax cuts could keep interest rates high, supporting foreign capital inflows into the US currency. This, in turn is expected to pressure Gold lower since it is mainly priced and traded in USD.
Gold bounces briefly after Fed meeting
Gold reverses its brief bounce after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) November rate meeting concluded with the decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) (0.25%) on Thursday. This brought the Fed Funds Target Range (FFTR) down to the range of 4.50% – 4.75%, as expected. Lower interest rates are positive for Gold, which is a non-interest-bearing asset, as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal.
Gold also won bids due to the complete absence of any mention of how the outcome of the US presidential election might impact the US economy in the Fed’s accompanying statement. Nor was the wording changed by much from the previous meeting, except to state that “labor market conditions have generally eased” since the last meeting in September.
During his press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell deflected question about Trump’s policies, saying it was too early to give an assessment given he did not know the “timing, (or) substance of policy changes.” Powell also said he did not think the rise in US Treasury bond yields was due to higher inflation expectations, perhaps signaling a gloomier assessment that might benefit safe-haven Gold.
Gold weakens after Donald Trump wins election
Gold’s steep decline on Wednesday was triggered by the results of the US presidential election, which increasingly confirmed a return to the White House for former president Donald Trump. The newly-elected president’s economic agenda supports a higher US Dollar, which is negative for the precious metal.
Gold may have been further hit by a broad rotation out of safe-haven investments and into alternative, riskier assets, such as Bitcoin (BTC) and equities, as a result of Trump’s re-election.
Bitcoin hit a new all-time high on Thursday due to expectations that Trump will relax crypto regulation. Stocks also rose as a result of anticipated tax cuts and a looser regulatory environment overall. These all came at the cost of Gold, which saw outflows as investors shuffled their portfolios.
Trump’s claims that he can end the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, though seemingly exaggerated (“I will have that (Ukraine-Russia) war settled in one day – 24hrs,” Trump said once), probably reduced safe-haven flows and also hit Gold. Even before Trump’s re-election, the US had bolstered its military presence in the region with B-52 bombers designed to act as a deterrent to any plans Iran might have for attacking Israel after its bombardment last month.
Technical Analysis: XAU/USD pulls back within short-term downtrend
Gold pulls back higher after finding a floor following the post-Trump election. The correction is likely to be temporary, however, given the precious metal remains in a short-term downtrend, and it is a principle of technical analysis that “the trend is your friend.”
XAU/USD 4-hour Chart
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator has exited oversold territory, advising short-holders to close their trades and open tentative longs. The Moving Average Divergence Convergence (MACD) indicator has crossed above its signal line, giving a buy signal. This suggests a risk the correction may still have higher to go.
However, due to the bearish short-term trend, the odds currently favor Gold eventually turning back down again. A break below the $2,643 low of Thursday would confirm a continuation to the downside, probably to the next target and the trendline for the long-term uptrend at $2,605.
However, the precious metal remains in an uptrend on a medium and long-term basis, with a material risk of a reversal higher in line with these broader up cycles at some point in time.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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