- Gold price staged a notable recovery from a nearly two-month low touched on Tuesday.
- Elevated US bond yields and a bullish USD might cap gains for the non-yielding XAU/USD.
- Traders now look forward to the crucial US consumer inflation figures for a fresh impetus.
Gold price (XAU/USD) trims a part of modest intraday recovery gains, albeit it manages to hold above the $2,600 mark heading into the European session on Wednesday. The uncertainty over US President-elect Donald Trump’s promised trade tariffs and their impact on the global economy tempers investors’ appetite for riskier assets, which, in turn, drives some haven flows towards the precious metal. Apart from this, some repositioning trade ahead of the US consumer inflation data turns out to be another factor lending some support to the commodity.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) stands firm near its highest level since early May amid hopes that Trump’s expansionary policies could boost inflation and limit the scope for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates. The outlook remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which, in turn, keeps a lid on any further appreciating move for the non-yielding Gold price. Nevertheless, the XAU/USD, for now, seems to have snapped a three-day losing streak to its lowest level since September 20, around the $2,590-2,589 region touched on Tuesday.
Gold price bulls seem non committed as Trump optimism keeps the USD and US bond yields elevated
- The US Dollar climbed to its highest level since early May on Tuesday amid optimism over US President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed expansionary policies and dragged the Gold price below the $2,600 mark for the first time since September.
- Furthermore, the likelihood of Trump’s protectionist tariffs being implemented should put upward pressure on inflation and limit the scope for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which remain supportive of elevated US bond yields.
- Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said Tuesday that inflation might be coming under control, though the path remains uncertain and that the core gauge might give a signal that it risks getting stuck above the central bank’s 2% target.
- Separately, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted that any upside surprise in inflation in the weeks leading up to the December FOMC monetary policy meeting could encourage the central bank to pause interest rate cuts.
- The yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond remains close to a multi-month peak touched after Trump’s victory in the US presidential election amid reduced bets for aggressive interest rate cuts by the Fed going forward.
- The USD bulls take a brief pause for a breather and look to the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures, which will play a key role in influencing market expectations about the Fed’s rate-cut path and provide a fresh impetus.
- The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to have risen by 0.2% in October and by 2.6% over the past 12 months, up from 2.4% in the prior month, fueling doubts over how much headroom the Fed has to keep cutting rates.
Gold price technical setup supports prospects for further losses, break below the $2,600 mark awaited
From a technical perspective, the overnight resilience below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-October rally and the subsequent move-up warrants caution for bearish traders. That said, oscillators on the daily chart are holding deep in negative territory and are still away from being in the oversold zone. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the Gold price is to the downside.
Hence, any subsequent move up could be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped near the $2,630-2,632 resistance. That said, some follow-through buying could lift the Gold price to the next relevant hurdle near the $2,650-2,655 region, en route to the $2,670 level. This is followed by the $2,700 mark, which if cleared decisively will suggest that the recent corrective fall from the all-time peak has run its course.
On the flip side, bearish traders need to wait for acceptance below the $2,600 mark and the 38.2% Fibo. level before placing fresh bets. The subsequent fall might then drag the Gold price to the $2,540 confluence – comprising the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50% Fibo. level. This could act as a strong near-term base for the XAU/USD, which if broken will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders.
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