- Gold price gains follow-through traction for the second day amid trade war concerns.
- Subdued USD price action and geopolitical risks also benefit the safe-haven XAU/USD.
- Traders look to the US Q3 GDP print and the US PCE Price Index for fresh impetuses.
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some follow-through buying during the Asian session on Wednesday and looks to build on the overnight bonce from the $2,600 neighborhood, or a one-week low. Persistent geopolitical risks stemming from the protracted Russia-Ukraine war, along with concerns over US President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff plans, drive some haven flows towards the precious metal for the second straight day.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) consolidates near the lower end of its weekly range despite Tuesday’s upbeat US macro data and turns out to be another factor underpinning the Gold price. That said, the prospects for a less dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) might cap the non-yielding yellow metal. Traders also await the US inflation data for cues about the future rate cuts and before placing fresh directional bets around the XAU/USD.
Gold price continues to attract haven flows after Trump’s tariff threats
- US President-elect Donald Trump pledged to impose tariffs on all products coming into the US from Canada, Mexico and China, driving some follow-through haven flows towards the Gold price.
- Ukraine reported the biggest Russian drone attack on its territory on Tuesday. Russia used a hypersonic missile on Ukraine last week and is advancing at the fastest rate since the 2022 invasion.
- Russia is reported to be using North Korean troops in Ukraine. Ukraine is striking targets deep inside Russia with Western-supplied missiles, raising the risk of a further escalation of the conflict.
- The long-running Middle East conflict de-escalated after US President Joe Biden announced that Lebanon and Israel agreed to a ceasefire deal effective from 02:00 GMT this Wednesday.
- The Conference Board reported on Tuesday that the US Consumer Confidence Index climbed to 111.7 in November – the highest since July 2023 – from 109.6 in the previous month.
- Minutes of the November 6-7 FOMC meeting showed that officials were divided over how much farther they may need to cut rates and were uncertain about the direction of the economy.
- The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates that investors are still pricing in a 63% chance that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs by 25-basis-point at the December meeting.
- President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for US Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent is expected to take a more phased approach on tariffs in an attempt to rein in the budget deficit.
- The yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond holds steady above a two-week low touched on Monday and the US Dollar is seen consolidating near the weekly low.
- Wednesday’s US economic docket features the release of the prelim Q3 GDP print and the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index later during the North American session.
Gold price is likely to confront some resistance near 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart
From a technical perspective, Tuesday’s goodish rebound from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent recovery and the subsequent strength favor bullish traders. That said, oscillators on the daily chart are yet to confirm a positive bias and suggest that the move up is more likely to confront stiff resistance near the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. The said barrier is pegged near the $2,645 region, above which the Gold price could climb further towards the $2,665 area en route to the $2,677-2,678 hurdle before aiming to reclaim the $2,700 round figure.
On the flip side, the $2,624-2,622 region could offer some support ahead of the $2,600 mark. A convincing break below the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and expose the 100-day SMA, around the $2,569-2,568 zone. This is followed by the monthly swing low, around the $2,537-2,536 area. Failure to defend the said support levels will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and set the stage for the resumption of the corrective decline from the $2,800 neighborhood, or the all-time peak touched in October.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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