- GBP/USD weakens to near 1.3265 in Thursday’s early Asian session.
- The risk-off mood and upbeat US ADP report lift the US Dollar.
- A less dovish stance of the BoE might cap the pair’s downside.
The GBP/USD pair extends its downside to around 1.3265 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The renewed demand for the US dollar (USD) amid the rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East provides some support to the major pair. The US September ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), the weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and the final S&P Global Services PMI will be in the spotlight on Thursday.
Iran fired more than 180 missiles at Israel on Tuesday, its biggest-ever direct attack on the country. Israel and the United States vowed retribution for the attack. A sign that conflict in the region is intensifying and the fear of wider war boosts the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Greenback against the Pound Sterling (GBP).
The US ADP Employment Change data for September was better than expectations, with 143,000 new jobs added. This figure was above the median forecast of 120,000 and the revised August figure of 103,000. The attention will shift to the US employment data on Friday for fresh catalysts.
The expectation that the easing cycle of the Bank of England (BoE) will be lower than other central banks from Group of Seven (G-7) nations might cap the downside for the GBP. The financial market expects the BoE to cut interest rates one more time by 25 bps in the remainder of this year.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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