Weak German data (soft November Retail Sales and a sharp, 5.4% plunge in Factory Orders over the November month are pushing the EUR lower, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
EUR/USD extends losses on tariff report
“Spot losses have accelerated on the Trump tariff headlines in early dealing. The EUR could not hold gains above 1.04 yesterday and losses extended further than I had expected through the mid/upper 1.03s. Losses means the EUR is straying even further from out fair value estimate, leaving it one standard deviation below equilibrium at 1.0528.”
“The EUR’s failure to advance through the mid1.04 zone and yesterday’s loss of support in the mid/upper 1.03s leaves spot looking vulnerable again. Short-term trend momentum has shifted again—reflecting a weak EUR undertone—which may add to pressure for a retest of the mid/upper 1.02s.”
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