- The EUR/USD trimmed losses after falling to a low of 1.0830 and then recovered towards 1.0885.
- Jerome Powell acknowledged the need for evidence to declare a victory on inflation.
- US ISM PMI from November came in lower than expected.
During Friday’s session, the EUR/USD cleared many of its daily losses, recovering to 1.0885 after finding support at a low of around 1.0830. The recovery was triggered by a broad US dollar weakness, which, despite Powell’s hawkish words during his speech at Spelman College, struggles to make a move higher. In addition, the shared currency will close a 0.60% losing week after gaining more than 2% since mid-November.
In line with that, Chairman Powell acknowledged a decrease in inflation while noting that core inflation remains elevated. He emphasised the need for more evidence regarding progress in achieving the 2% inflation target. Furthermore, he mentioned that interest rates are acting restrictively but cautioned against prematurely declaring that monetary policy has reached a sufficiently restrictive stance. He then claimed that decisions on such matters would still be based on the incoming data.
On the data front, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI from November printed 46.7, matching its previous figure while falling short of the anticipated 47.6. Next week, the US will release its monthly Nonfarm Payrolls report which investors will closely watch.
EUR/USD levels to watch
Based on the technical indicators on the daily chart, there is a significant push of bullish momentum, but with buyers taking a break. This is indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which shows a flat position in positive territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) presents a red bar, which signals sellers are gradually are gaining strength.
On the other hand, the pair’s position above the 20, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) clearly confirms that bulls are firmly in control of the overall trend.
Support Levels: 1.0850 (20-day SMA), 1.0830, and 1.0815.
Resistance Levels: 1.0900,1.0950, 1.0970.
EUR/USD daily chart
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