The 4Q24 drop in EUR/USD was primarily driven by the widening in the short-dated swap rate differential due to diverging policy expectations between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
EUR/USD set to rebound short-term
“Over the Christmas holiday period and in particular, in yesterday’s trading session, the EUR/USD decline accelerated in spite of a re-tightening in the EUR:USD two-year swap rate gap from 200bp (on 12 December) to the current 185bp. We estimate that EUR/USD is trading around 2.5% below its short-term fair value, therefore displaying a risk premium associated with growth concerns for the eurozone.”
“Aside from the implications of expected US protectionism under Trump, we think pressure is being added by the rise in TTF gas prices to 50 EUR/MWh caused by Ukraine’s pipeline shutdown. The pound was the worst performer yesterday, and it is probably not a coincidence that GBP is the most negatively correlated with gas in the G10.”
“If the technical picture is pointing to a EUR/USD short-term rebound, the euro remains a broadly unattractive currency in the longer run, and we cannot exclude another leg lower might be needed – perhaps to the 1.0200 mark – before a recovery.”
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