Economists at ING do not expect European currencies to lead the pack of appreciation against the US Dollar.
European currencies set to lag
We think the Dollar story will be enough to drag EUR/USD higher through 2024 – 1.15 is our year-end target – but the moves should be relatively modest.
EUR/USD will be trying to rally while the Eurozone is in recession. It will also face the challenge of an increasingly dovish European Central Bank if our call is correct for the first ECB rate cut in June. And weak Eurozone growth typically spells trouble for some of the Eurozone’s peripheral government bond markets too.
As to the Pound, a 100 bps Bank of England easing cycle will create headwinds for GBP/USD. We do not foresee the UK election demanding a big risk premium of the Pound, but we doubt it will provide a tailwind either.
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