- US President Joe Biden hails ceasefire deal in the Middle East and calls the activated 60-day ceasefire deal as permanent.
- OPEC+ has confirmed it will delay its Output Policy Meeting to December 5th.
- The US Dollar Index bounces off support with US markets closed for Thanksgiving.
Crude Oil trades again with slim gains during the European trading session on Thursday, while overall selling pressure persists after US President Joe Biden called the recent active ceasefire deal in Gaza as a permanent cessation of hostilities, Bloomberg reports. Meanwhile OPEC+ has confirmed it will postpone its upcoming Output Policy Meeting decision from Sunday to December 5th. The conglomerate of Oil Producing and Exporting Countries (OPEC) is again facing an existential crisis with a slowdown in global demand with more non-OPEC supply to be released to markets taking place.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of currencies, is bouncing off a technical support level. With US markets closed Thursday and Friday for Thanksgiving and Black Friday, the bounce comes from Europe where France is facing issues. The French Prime Minister Michel Barnier warned that France could become unstable if the French parliament does not pass a much needed budget plan, and could cause issues for France on financial markets, Bloomberg reported.
At the time of writing, Crude Oil (WTI) trades at $68.92 and Brent Crude at $72.70
Oil news and market movers: OPEC+ kicks can down the road for a few days
- Delegates close to the matter confirmed in early Thursday trading that OPEC+ will delay its planned meeting for Sunday towards December 5th, Reuters and Bloomberg reported. OPEC’s secretariat said that the delay was because several ministers will attend the meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council in Kuwait on Dec. 1.
- China’s independent refiners have snapped up barrels from across the Middle East and Africa as offers of Iranian oil remain scarce and are more expensive due to broadening US sanctions, Bloomberg reports.
- Israel has warned residents displaced by fighting and evacuation orders not to return to their homes in southern Lebanon, despite a ceasefire between Israeli forces and Hezbollah coming into effect Wednesday, CNN reports.
Oil Technical Analysis: OPEC+ needs to look at more production cuts in stead of normalization
Crude Oil price still faces selling pressure with traders becoming impatient on what OPEC+ will do to make sure Crude OIl prices remain supported. With the slowdown in the Chinese economy, a global slowdown in Oil demand and the US set to pump and dump many more barrels under President-elect Donald Trump, the rabbit that OPEC+ will need to grab out of its magic hat, must be an impressive one. Keep in mind that with plenty of stops placed just elbow $67.00, a quick correction to even $66.00 or $64.00 could be a possible scenario.
On the upside, the pivotal level at $71.46 and the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $72.26 are the two main resistances. The 200-day SMA at $76.27 is still far off, although it could be tested if tensions intensify further. In its rally towards that 200-day SMA, the pivotal level at $75.27 could still slow down any upticks.
On the other side, traders need to look towards $67.12 – a level that held the price in May and June 2023 – to find the first support. In case that breaks, the 2024 year-to-date low emerges at $64.75, followed by $64.38, the low from 2023.
US WTI Crude Oil: Daily Chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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