Economists at the National Australia Bank analyze Australian economic outlook
Inflation is now clearly past its peak for this cycle in Australia
We now see a cash rate peak of 4.6% in February, with the RBA staying on hold until late 2024. That said, our broad outlook remains unchanged with below trend GDP growth (1.4% and 1.7% over 2023 and 2024, respectively) and an ongoing easing in the labour market as slower growth in labour demand is unable to fully absorb still strong population growth.
The moderation in inflation is expected to continue, but be bumpy, with the underlying rate ending 2024 at 4.5% before easing to 3.3% by end-2024.
We continue to see the Aussie ending the year at around 0.66 before tracking higher over 2024 – ending 2024 at around 0.73.
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