VanEck believes Ethereum (ETH) will be worth roughly $22,000 by 2030, the asset manager said in a comprehensive analysis published on June 5.
The forecast, developed by the firm’s Digital Assets Research team, led by Matthew Sigel, highlights Ethereum’s strong growth potential within both traditional and cryptocurrency-focused portfolios.
VanEck’s analysis attributes the optimistic price target to Ethereum’s expanding role as a high-growth, internet-native commercial system that could disrupt traditional financial sectors and Big Tech platforms.
The report emphasized Ethereum’s significant user base and economic activity, noting that the network currently supports approximately 20 million monthly active users, facilitates $4 trillion in annual settlement value, and oversees $308 billion in digital assets.
$2 trillion market cap
VanEck’s valuation model for ETH is based on a forecast of $66 billion in free cash flows — the amount of money generated by a blockchain network — by 2030, with a 33x valuation multiple on those cash flows.
The model considers Ethereum’s potential to disrupt various business sectors, including finance, marketing, infrastructure, and artificial intelligence (AI).
According to the report, the Ethereum network is poised to capture substantial market share from traditional financial markets and technology giants.
If Ethereum maintains its dominance among smart contract platforms, VanEck sees a credible path to generating $66 billion in free cash flow — the amount of money generated by a blockchain network — for token holders — supporting a $2.2 trillion market capitalization and a $22,000 price per ETH by 2030.
Revolutionary asset
The company emphasized ETH’s broad use cases, stating:
“We believe ETH is a revolutionary asset with few parallels in the non-crypto financial world.”
VanEck cited ETH’s role as “digital oil” consumed in on-chain use and called it “programmable money and a yield-bearing commodity.”
It also referred to ETH as an internet reserve currency that prices activity and assets in Ethereum’s $1 billion ecosystem and connecting blockchains.
According to the report, Ethereum generated $3.4 billion in revenue over the past year, surpassing some web2 apps like Etsy, Twitch, and Roblox. Meanwhile, its 20 million monthly active users surpass Instacart, Robinhood, and Vrbo.
VanEck added that ETH offers cost-saving features, better interconnectivity for social applications, the opportunity to share earnings with end users, and a basis for AI applications.
Investment risks
While the report is optimistic about Ethereum’s future, it also emphasizes several risks associated with investing in ETH.
One major concern is Ethereum’s reliance on speculative activities, which could lead to significant downside risk if market sentiment shifts.
Regulatory changes pose another risk, as they could classify ETH as a security, thereby imposing stringent legal requirements on Ethereum-based businesses. The competitive landscape is also a threat, with emerging technologies like Solana challenging its market dominance.
Additionally, government actions to control non-sovereign financial systems could negatively impact Ethereum’s growth prospects.
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