As the 2024 presidential election draws closer, prediction markets are offering intriguing insights into both political outcomes and cryptocurrency trends. More than $1 billion worth of bets have poured into Polymarket surrounding the Trump-Harris matchup, with Harris clinging to a razor-thin, one-point overall lead.
If historic voting patterns hold, Harris seems to hold an advantage in four of the six key swing states. That includes Pennsylvania and Michigan, both of which have gone to Democratic candidates for most of the past several decades, except in 2016.
Wisconsin is usually seen as one of the most unpredictable states in the country, and a recent New York Times/Siena College traditional poll had Harris at 49% and Trump at 47%. But traders at Polymarket give Harris a 56% probability of carrying the state.
With the rise of Polymarket, the relative reliability of these prediction markets compared to traditional polling is receiving attention. One of the more interesting case studies will be Wisconsin, which has traditionally been a state where polling has been unreliable, with four of the last six presidential elections decided by less than a percentage point.
Meanwhile, in the crypto world, prediction markets are bearish on the short-term outlook for Bitcoin, despite a spate of bullish indicators. Despite the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates recently and China injecting liquidity into its economy, users on Polymarket are giving the cryptocurrency just a 41% chance of trading above $65,000 by October 4.
This cautious outlook is despite the increased trading of $75,000 call options, a normally bullish sign. It could also mean that traders are pricing in fears of Bitcoin being “overbought” given its recent surge in price.
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