You would think that with the holiday season upon us and retail spending ramping up, that December would be time to shine for shipping giants FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX) and United Parcel Service Inc (NYSE:UPS). History says not so fast, with FDX and UPS among the 25 worst-performing stocks on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in December, looking back 10 years.
Per the chart below from Schaeffer’s Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, FedEx stock averages a December loss of 3.7% over the last 10 years, finishing the month with a positive return only three times. UPS, meanwhile, averages a monthly loss of 2.6% and has finished December positive only 30% of the time in the last decade.
FedEx stock was last seen up 0.6% to trade at $261.74, adding to its 51% year-to-date lead. UPS is 0.6% higher today to trade at $152.58 but is off by 12.4% in 2023, and is staring up at its 100-day moving average. It’s also worth noting that FedEx and UPS stock have a 14-day Relative Strength Index above 70, firmly in ‘overbought’ territory, which could indicate a short-term breather on the charts.
Both stocks boast cheap options at the moment. FDX and UPS’ respective Schaeffer’s Volatility Index (SVI) readings of 21% and 20% sit in the bottom 15th percentile all other readings in their annual range, implying that options players are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations at the moment.
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