The US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range between 152.00 and 153.20. In the longer run, upward momentum remains strong; the next level to monitor is 153.40, followed by 154.00, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.
To trade in a range between 152.00 and 153.20
24-HOUR VIEW: “When USD was trading at 151.05 yesterday, we highlighted that ‘provided that 150.50 is not breached, USD is likely to rise to 151.50.’ We indicated that ‘the major resistance at 151.90 is not expected to come into view.’ However, USD broke above 151.50 and 151.90, as it surged to a high of 153.18. USD pulled back from the high to close at 152.75 (+1.12%). The pullback in severely overbought conditions suggests USD is unlikely to rise much further. Today, it is more likely to trade in a range between 152.00 and 153.20.”
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Two days ago (22 Oct), when USD was at 150.90, we indicated that ‘there has been a clear increase in momentum.’ We also indicated that ‘if USD breaks above 151.00, the focus will then shift to 151.90.’ After USD broke above 151.00, we stated yesterday (23 Oct, spot at 151.05) that “The focus now is at 151.90.” Our view of a stronger USD was correct, but we did expect it to jump above 151.90 (high has been 153.18). Not surprisingly, momentum remains strong. From here, the next level to monitor is 153.40, followed by 154.00. Overall, only a breach of 151.00 (‘strong support’ level was at 150.00 yesterday) would mean that the advance that started early this month has come to an end.”
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