Linked with the increase in BoJ rate hike expectations, USD/JPY has dropped from a January high in the 158.87 area back below 156.00 this week, Rabobank’s FX analyst Jane Folet reports.
USD /JPY can move back to 145 on a 12-month view
“Whether the currency pair can convincingly hold below the 155.00 area in the near-term will likely depend on two main factors. Firstly, the signals provided about the pace of tariffs announced by Trump will remain a key influence on the USD. The longer the delay, the later the resultant price hike faced by US consumers. This will provide the Fed will more scope to cut interest rates.”
“A second key factor for the USD/JPY outlook will be the relative hawkishness of BoJ Governor Ueda later this week. His tone will impact expectations regarding the timing of the next BoJ policy move. In Rabobank’s view, USD /JPY can move back to 145 on a 12-month view, though this assumes a cautious, but progressive trajectory for BoJ interest rate hikes.”
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