Gold prices are pushing to new all-time highs as we expected, TDS’ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.
Downside risk still remains limited in Gold
“The time to throw caution to the wind was in early-January, which featured a rare set-up in which a higher USD/rates would attract ‘Mystery Buying’, whereas a reversal in the USD/rates would attract macro fund interest, and as CTA buying activity continued to intermittently hit the tapes.”
“At new all-time highs, with every single trend signal already pointing to the upside, CTAs will have effectively reached their ‘max long’ position size, which will leave the onus on other cohorts to carry the torch. Looking forward, while no scenarios will lead CTAs to shed their recently acquired length over the coming week, macro funds only held ~20% of their max size remaining to deploy as of last week, which limits the scope of dry-powder that can still be deployed.”
“Overall, downside risk still remains limited in Gold, but the upward impulse for the ongoing rally is starting to subside. Gold bulls need to reload some bullets. The set-up for flows in silver is superior.”
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