- GBP/JPY attracts fresh sellers on Tuesday and is pressured by a combination of factors.
- Intervention fears underpin the JPY, while a bullish USD continues to weigh on the GBP.
- The BoJ uncertainty and the BoE’s hawkish tilt could limit losses ahead of UK jobs data.
The GBP/JPY cross meets with a fresh supply following an Asian session uptick to levels just above the 198.00 mark and reverses a major part of the previous day’s move up. Spot prices currently trade around the 197.00 mark, down over 0.35% for the day, as traders now look forward to the UK monthly employment details for a fresh impetus.
The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) is expected to report that the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits rose to 30.5K in October, from 27.9K, and the jobless rate edged higher to 4.1% during the three months to September. Investors will also pay close attention to the wage growth data, which might influence expectations about the Bank of England’s (BoE) policy decision in December. This, in turn, will provide some meaningful impetus to the British Pound (GBP) and the GBP/JPY cross.
In the meantime, speculations that Japanese authorities might intervene in the FX market to prop up the domestic currency, along with fears about US President-elect Donald Trump’s protectionist tariffs, underpin the Japanese Yen (JPY) and exert pressure on spot prices. Any meaningful JPY appreciating move, however, seems elusive on the back of uncertainty over the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) rate-hike plans. Apart from this, the BoE’s hawkish tilt could offer support to the GBP and help limit the downside for the GBP/JPY cross.
Even from a technical perspective, the recent breakout above the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) favors bullish traders and supports prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying at lower levels. This further makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the GBP/JPY cross has topped out and positioning for a deeper corrective decline in the near term.
Economic Indicator
Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr)
The Average Earnings Excluding Bonus release is a key short-term indicator of how levels of pay are changing within the UK economy; it is released by the UK Office of National Statistics. It can be seen as a measure of growth in “basic pay”. Generally, a positive result is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), whereas a low reading is seen as bearish.
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