GBP/JPY flat lines above 199.00, looks to BoE for fresh impetus

• GBP/JPY seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses as traders keenly await the BoE policy decision.
• Fears of a possible government intervention offer support to the JPY and caps the upside for the cross.
• The BoJ rate-hike uncertainty, along with the risk-on environment, keeps a lid on the safe-haven JPY.

The GBP/JPY cross retreats a few pips after touching a one-week high, around the 199.55 region during the Asian session on Thursday, albeit it lacks follow-through selling. Spot prices currently trade just above the 199.00 mark, nearly unchanged for the day as traders look to the Bank of England (BoE) policy decision before positioning for the next leg of a directional move.

The UK central bank is widely expected to focus on a longer-term picture of slowing inflation and vote to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) for the second time this year. The focus, however, will be on the BoE’s forward guidance amid concerns that the expansive Autumn Budget introduced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves would boost inflation. Hence, the release of the final Monetary Policy Report for 2024, along with the BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s remarks at the post-meeting press conference, will influence the British Pound (GBP) and provide a fresh impetus to the GBP/JPY cross.

Heading into the key central bank event risk, some verbal intervention by Japanese authorities offers support to the Japanese Yen (JPY) and acts as a headwind for the currency pair. Japan’s chief cabinet secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi reiterated on Wednesday that the government intended to closely watch moves in the FX market, including speculative moves, with a higher sense of urgency. Adding to this, Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs and top FX official, said on Thursday that the government is ready to take appropriate actions for excess FX moves if necessary.

That said, doubts over the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) ability to hike interest rates further in the wake of the political uncertainty in Japan and the prevalent risk-on mood continues to undermine the safe-haven JPY. This, in turn, supports prospects for an extension of the GBP/JPY pair’s recent move-up witnessed over the past week or so. Bulls, however, need to wait for some follow-through buying beyond the 199.70-199.80 region, or over a three-month high touched last week before placing fresh bets.