Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan argued on Wednesday that she had supported last month’s substantial interest-rate cut but favoured smaller reductions going forward. She highlighted that there were “still real” upside risks to inflation and pointed to “meaningful uncertainties” surrounding the economic outlook.
Key Quotes
‘More gradual path’ on rate cuts is likely appropriate from here.
Upside risks to inflation mean the Fed should not rush to reduce rates.
Lowering the policy rate gradually would allow time to judge how restrictive monetary policy may or may not be.
Normalizing policy gradually also allows fed to ‘best balance’ labour market risks.
Policy not ‘preset,’ Fed must remain nimble.
Supported the Fed’s decision to begin normalizing policy by cutting the policy rate.
Less restrictive policy will help avoid cooling the labour market more than necessary.
Progress on inflation has been broad-based; the labour market has cooled, remains healthy.
Inflation, labour market ‘within striking distance’ of Fed’s goals.
Recent trends in inflation for housing, other core services ‘encouraging,’ expect to come down over time.
US economy is ‘strong and stable’ but there are ‘meaningful uncertainties’ around outlook.
Spending, economic growth that’s stronger than forecast poses upside risk to inflation.
Unwarranted further easing in financial conditions could also push demand out of balance with supply.
‘Neutral’ Fed funds rate is uncertain; structural economic changes mean it may be higher than pre-pandemic.
Remain attentive to inflation risks from supply chains, geopolitics, and port strikes.
As labor market has cooled, we face more risk it will cool beyond what is needed to return inflation to 2%.
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