The initial market reaction to Trump’s threat of secondary tariffs on Russian oil was muted. Oil prices only started to rise in the course of trading yesterday, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
Trump is set to announce a whole series of tariffs
“This morning, Brent reached the $75 per barrel mark for the first time since the end of February. However, it is unlikely to rise much further. This is because the gradual reversal of the voluntary production cuts by eight OPEC+ countries begins today, which will increase the oil supply by just under 140 thousand barrels per day.”
“At the same time, compensatory production cuts are to be made to offset previous overproduction, which could also reduce the expansion in production. However, last year’s experience calls for scepticism regarding the implementation of these cuts.”
“In addition, US President Trump is set to announce a whole series of tariffs, which could push demand concerns on the oil market back into focus. We can therefore envisage oil prices falling again in the coming days.”
Read the full article here