TD Securities’ US Macro Strategist Eli Nir analyzes how Artificial Intelligence-related activity affected US GDP in Q4 2025. Strong AI-driven fixed investment lifted Private Domestic Final Purchases, but a surge in computer and semiconductor imports dragged headline GDP lower. The note argues that without the AI investment boom, US fixed investment would have contracted and overall GDP growth would have been weaker.
AI reshapes US growth composition
“We estimate that AI-related activity actually drove down Q4 GDP growth close to 0.6pp (headline: 1.4% q/q AR). A surge in computer and semiconductor imports offset the strongest quarter so far for AI-driven fixed investment.”
“Investment continues to be supported by AI, and we believe that fixed investment would have likely declined 1.3% in Q4 absent the AI investment boom (actual: +2.6%). AI likely supported 87% of fixed investment growth in 2025 as a whole.”
“The contribution from AI to fixed investment growth in Q4 (+0.7pp) was actually the largest since the beginning of our calculations.”
“However, imports in Q4 were dominated by AI-related purchases abroad—such as computers and semiconductors—resulting in a drag on Q4 GDP (-1.3pp). The percent of total goods imports that were computers/semis surged to 16.3% in Q4 2025 from just 7.5% in 2023.”
“AI’s contribution to total 2025 GDP growth was essentially flat according to our calculations. The Q4 spike in imports was significant after three quarters of AI investment outpacing imports.”
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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