The Beige Book document, which is followed by the economic information announced by the FED at regular intervals and disclosed by the cryptocurrency market, has finally been published.
Here are the highlights of the important information in the document:
- A majority of the twelve Fed regions reported little or no change in economic activity since the previous Beige Book period.
- 7 regions reported little or no change in overall employment levels, while 2 regions described a tight labor market.
- Nearly all Fed regions reported cooling labor markets.
- 6 regions recorded slight or modest price increases. 2 recorded modest increases.
- 5 FED regions stated that the general price increase decreased compared to the previous period.
- The possibility of interest rates falling has been cited by many as a source of optimism.
- The possibility of interest rates falling has been cited by many as a source of optimism.
- Concerns about the workplace market, the weakening of general demand and the 2024 political cycle were cited as sources of economic uncertainty.
The market is trying to calculate how much the FED will cut interest rates this year. Current pricing is 138 basis points for this year, down from 161 basis points last week. Interest rate cut expectations for the March meeting have decreased from 80% to 54%.
While the numbers look roughly in line with falling inflation, most signs still point to a solid U.S. economy. Announced today, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow growth forecast for the 4th quarter was raised from 2.1% to 2.4% on the back of strong retail sales.
*This is not investment advice.
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