Litecoin price is hovering near a crucial resistance level, with both fundamentals and technical indicators suggesting a potential surge of over 75% this year.
Litecoin (LTC) rose to a high of $128.37 on Thursday and is up approximately 60% from its lowest level this year.
The primary catalyst for Litecoin is the increasing likelihood that the Securities and Exchange Commission will approve a spot Litecoin exchange-traded fund later this year. Companies including Canary Capital, Grayscale, and CoinShares have filed applications for a spot Litecoin fund.
According to Polymarket, the probability of the Securities and Exchange Commission approving a spot Litecoin exchange-traded fund has climbed to 85%, indicating strong market confidence in a listing. Another poll assigns a 52% probability that the agency will approve the fund by July 31.
Odds of proof-of-work coins such as Litecoin and Dogecoin (DOGE) receiving regulatory approval are significantly higher than those for proof-of-stake tokens. The SEC views Litecoin and Dogecoin as digital commodities, while it categorizes other tokens as securities.
Litecoin’s price has also increased as demand in the futures market has surged. Open interest in Litecoin futures climbed to $870 million on Wednesday, up from this month’s low of $420 million. Rising futures interest signals growing investor positioning and speculation.
Litecoin price analysis
The weekly chart shows that Litecoin’s price has rebounded in recent weeks. It has moved above the 50-week Exponential Moving Average and surpassed the key resistance level at $114.05. This level was significant as it formed the upper boundary of an ascending triangle, a pattern widely considered bullish in technical analysis.
Additionally, Litecoin has formed a slanted triple-bottom pattern, another bullish indicator. The token is also in the process of forming the second phase of the Elliott Wave pattern, where the third phase is typically the strongest and longest.
Given these factors, Litecoin’s price could continue rising, with the next target at $225, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, representing a 75% upside from the current price. However, this bullish outlook would be invalidated if Litecoin’s price falls below the support level at $80.
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