Trump tariffs, Fed shift and Bitcoin: Is the bottom in?

As technical indicators and changing macro conditions point to a possible recovery, Bitcoin might be forming a bottom.

In an analysis published on Mar. 24, crypto analytics firm 10X Research highlighted the recent consolidation and shifting outlook of Bitcoin (BTC). Analysts initially expected a more severe correction after Bitcoin dropped below $95,000, confirming a breakdown from its ascending broadening wedge.

However, a more favorable macro environment and improved technical indicators have led to a more optimistic outlook. One of the main causes of this shift in sentiment is the Federal Reserve’s recent policy position.

The FOMC meeting went as expected, and the Fed signaled a willingness to look beyond short-term inflationary pressures. Analysts now predict rate cuts in the second half of the year, which supports a more favorable macro environment for risk assets like Bitcoin.

Adding to the optimism, Donald Trump’s recent comments about the tariff announcements on April 2 demonstrate a softer stance than his prior statements. This shift could help Bitcoin sustain its recent stability by reducing short-term uncertainty.

Bitcoin continues to encounter strong resistance between $90,000 and $92,000 despite these encouraging developments. 10X Research noted that until it exits this range, the larger market is likely to keep consolidating. Institutional investors are also being cautious ahead of important corporate earnings reports in April, which could affect the mood of the market as a whole.

As at the time of press, Bitcoin is trading at $86,917, showing a slight upward momentum after rising from recent lows. Although confirmation is required, the MACD level points to a potential bullish shift. Bitcoin is neither overbought nor oversold, according to the RSI at 51, which indicates a neutral market.

With prices staying above significant levels, short-term moving averages support a bullish trend. The 100-day and 50-day moving averages, however, continue to suggest potential resistance and downward movement. There is currently no clear breakout from the Ichimoku Base Line, which is in line with the current price.

The price is getting close to the midline, according to the Bollinger Bands, which could signal a breakout or rejection in the near future. To overcome the next resistance level, which is near $90,000, Bitcoin must rise above $87,000 to $88,000. If rejected, support can range from $84,500 to $85,000.

Meanwhile, investor sentiment appears to be improving as last week saw the first inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds since January. A more favorable macro environment and less selling pressure could support Bitcoin’s next upward move, despite the current risks.