Robinhood and Kalshi have launched a prediction market for the men’s and women’s college basketball tournaments, allowing users to trade event contracts on game outcomes.
Robinhood looks to be dipping its toes further into the prediction markets, teaming up with Kalshi to let users trade on college basketball matchups. Instead of just filling out a bracket, fans can now buy and sell event contracts, with prices fluctuating in cents based on how the market views each team’s chances.
In a blog announcement on Monday, March 17, Robinhood says at launch the so-called prediction market hub “will allow customers to trade contracts for what the upper bound of the target fed funds rate will be in May, as well as the upcoming men’s and women’s College Basketball Tournaments.”
“Now you can trade on the outcome of every match-up in the men’s and women’s college basketball tournaments, including the final championships,” the Menlo Park-headquartered company said on a dedicated web page. Users who hold winning contracts at settlement will receive a $1 payout per contract, while losing contracts will be worth nothing.
How Robinhood’s prediction market works
Robinhood says there are no hidden tricks: if a contract is priced at 53 cents, that means the market sees a roughly 53% chance of that outcome happening. Users can also sell their positions before the event ends, allowing them to take profits or cut losses based on price movements.
Each event contract follows a simple yes-or-no format, similar to other prediction markets like Polymarket. “Each contract that you own will pay out $1 if that contract resolves to the side you own. It will pay out $0 if not,” Robinhood explains in a FAQ section.
Users can take either the “Yes” or “No” side on a given contract but cannot hold both sides simultaneously for the same event. However, they can take multiple positions across different matchups. The platform also displays open interest — the number of active contracts held by users — to provide insight into market activity.
Robinhood is charging a $0.01 commission per contract per side, and the brokerage executing the orders may impose additional fees, the company added. The brokerage giant says its event contracts fall under Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulations and are offered in partnership with its rival Kalshi, another prediction market platform that allows users to bet on elections, news events, and pop culture.
Hidden pitfalls
Robinhood’s plans for expanding its prediction market offering remain uncertain, as the space has had its fair share of controversy, with disputes over market resolutions being a recurring issue.
Polymarket, one of the largest prediction markets by trading volume, has several times faced criticism over its resolution process. One of such cases involved a market titled “Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?”
On the night of Sept. 30, Israel launched military operations in Lebanon to push Hezbollah forces back from the border. While major news outlets widely referred to the action as an “invasion,” suggesting the market should resolve to yes, it ultimately settled as no, sparking backlash from traders.
The decision hinged on Polymarket’s strict interpretation of its rules. Although Israeli troops entered Lebanon, some participants argued that an “invasion” required an official declaration or an effort to seize and hold territory — criteria Israel had not explicitly met. Despite the widespread use of the term “invasion” in media coverage, the market was ruled not to have technically fulfilled the conditions for a yes outcome.
Robinhood’s move into event contracts adds to a broader trend of financial platforms offering new types of trading beyond traditional stocks and crypto. Moreover, it’s also not the brokerage’s first attempt at prediction markets, as before the November elections, Robinhood briefly introduced its own service and later announced a market for the Super Bowl outcome. However, in February, Robinhood withdrew the offering after the CFTC instructed the company to “not permit customers to access” sports event contracts.
At the time, Robinhood expressed disappointment, stating that it had been in “regular communication with the CFTC about our intent and plans to offer this product” prior to the launch.
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