Toncoin price has risen by 45% from its lowest level this month after Pavel Durov was allowed to leave France after months.
Toncoin (TON) rose to a high of $3.6240 on Saturday, its highest level since Feb. 24, bringing its market cap to over $8.4 billion.
Pavel Durov leaves France
The surge happened in part because of the ongoing crypto prices rebound and after French authorities gave Durov his passport, allowing him the freedom to leave the country.
https://twitter.com/ton_blockchain/status/1900923518281543959?s=46
Durov was arrested in 2024 in France and was accused of several crimes, including complicity in managing an online platform that enabled illegal transactions. Allegations include refusal to cooperate with authorities, drug trafficking and money laundering.
Following Durov’s arrest, many in the crypto community rallied in his defense.
Still, there are risks that the Toncoin price surge may be short-lived because of its fairly weak on-chain metrics. Data compiled by TonStat shows that the TON inflation has continued rising and currently stands at 0.40%, up from 0.33% in October. This inflation has jumped as the total supply has surged to over 5.124 billion.
More data shows that the number of transactions per day crashed to 2.15 million from almost 20 million in September last year.
The number of active wallets in the TON Blockchain has continued to drop. Also, the total value locked in its DeFi ecosystem has dropped to $180 million from almost $800 million a few months ago.
STON.fi, its biggest DEX network, has a small market share, handling $7.1 million in the last 24 hours.
One reason for this performance is that most tokens in the TON Blockchain, like Hamster Kombat (HMSTR), Catizen (CATI) and Tapswap, have crashed — erasing billions of dollars in value.
The Toncoin price may also drop as investors sell the Durov release news. Historically, traders initially overreact to major news and then sell after a while. Recall when Cardano’s price rose after being named one of the tokens included in President Trump’s stockpile (the coin tumbled by double digits a few days later).
Toncoin price analysis
The daily chart shows that the TON price has bounced back after bottoming at $2.3650 this month. It rose to a high of $3.50, which coincided with the 50-day moving average, a sign that it has found substantial resistance.
Toncoin price also found resistance at the weak, stop and reverse point of the Murrey Math Lines. Therefore, the token will likely resume the downtrend and move below $3 as the Durov news starts to fade.
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