VanEck has published its Bitcoin (BTC) On-Chain Report. The report states that the recent sharp pullback in Bitcoin was evaluated using on-chain data, with a particular focus on long-term investor behavior and miner dynamics.
According to the report, Bitcoin has lost approximately 29% of its value in the last 30 days. This decline occurred alongside a weakening of market sentiment. The NUPL (Unrealized Net Profit/Loss) metric, an indicator of on-chain profitability, approached the “concern zone” and briefly entered the “fear zone.” During the same period, a significant amount of leveraged positions were liquidated, and the amount of open positions in futures contracts fell to levels not seen since September 2024. This indicates a cleanup of excessive leverage accumulation in the market.
In terms of distribution, it was noted that sales mainly came from the group of investors who have held Bitcoin for 1 to 5 years. However, in the last month, a significant slowdown in the rate of sales of Bitcoins held for more than a year has been observed. This development indicates that the selling pressure from long-term investors is beginning to weaken and that a potential balancing process may be underway.
In the mining sector, profit margins are reportedly under pressure. A nearly 14% decline in total network hash rate over the past 90 days indicates a tightening of the mining economy. Historically, similar hash rate contractions have been noted as creating supply-side rebalancing by driving weaker miners out of the system, laying the groundwork for stronger price performance in the future.
According to VanEck’s assessment, the current picture suggests that despite weak price movement in the short term, a healthier market structure may emerge in the medium to long term due to factors such as delegitimization, slowing sales velocity, and shrinking hash rate.
*This is not investment advice.
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