Following a brief ascent above $99,000 on Friday, the Bitcoin market experienced a negative end to the past trading week as prices crashed below $96,000 in a sharp descent. Based on these happenings, the premier cryptocurrency remains in consolidation with little indication of its long-term price movement. Notably, blockchain analytics firm Glassnode has shared a recent network development hinting at a possible price rally.
Bitcoin At A Crossroads: Key Metric Set Could Decide Next Move
In an X post on Friday, Glassnode reports that Bitcoin’s aSOPR is at 1.01, a critical metric level that places the crypto asset in a delicate market position. Generally, an adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) is an on-chain metric that measures the profitability of Bitcoin transactions by comparing the selling price of coins to their acquisition price.
When the aSOPR is above 1, it indicates that the average Bitcoin holder is selling at a profit. Conversely, a value below one indicates that BTC is being sold at a loss. Therefore, Bitcoin’s aSOPR at 1.01 suggests that market participants are barely making profits on their transactions.
According to Glassnode, the BTC market is historically a breakeven point where further movement of the aSOPR in either direction could significantly impact price trajectory. In 2021, Bitcoin’s aSOPR reset to around 1.01 preceded a strong bull run that eventually resulted in the then new-all time of $64,800. A similar reset was also seen in late 2023 resulting in a price surge to around $69,000.
Going by these past events, if Bitcoin’s aSOPR holds above 1.01, it would suggest buyer absorption indicating a renewed market confidence in anticipation of an incoming price rally. On the other hand, if the aSOPR decline continues a break below 1.0, this development would mean sellers are offloading BTC at a loss which can signal further downward pressure.
BTC Price Outlook
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $96,300 following a significant 1.98% loss in the past day. Meanwhile, its daily trading volume has gained by 51.28% indicating an increased market interest. This increased market interest amidst price decline could be indicative of either a panic selling by concerned investors or strong accumulation by market bulls.
Based on the BTCUSDT daily chart, breaking and holding above $99,000 could mark an end to the current consolidation phase leading to a sustained price uptrend. However, a price fall below $95,000 could pave the way for all bearish possibilities with certain analysts hinting at a potential return to $76,000.
Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview
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