Bitcoin (BTC) exchanges are getting a key “deleveraging event,” which should shape future gains, new research says.
In one of its “Quicktake” blog posts on March 17, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant revealed a $10 billion capitulation on Bitcoin futures markets.
Bitcoin sees “essential” event for BTC price rebound
Bitcoin derivatives traders have flipped firmly risk-off since BTC/USD hit its current all-time highs in mid-January.
CryptoQuant, which uses data from various major crypto exchanges, calculates that aggregate open interest (OI) on futures fell by $10 billion in just three weeks from Feb. 20 through March 4.
“On January 17th, Bitcoin’s open interest reached an all-time high of over $33B, indicating that leverage in the market had never been this high,” contributor Darkfost writes.
The drop, he argues, “can be considered as a natural market reset, an essential phase for sustaining a bullish continuation.”
Bitcoin futures OI data for top exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant
An accompanying chart shows the 90-day rolling change in aggregate OI, highlighting the severity of the market’s U-turn following the all-time highs.
“Currently, the 90-day change in Bitcoin futures open interest has dropped sharply and now sitting at -14%,” Darkfost concludes.
“Looking at historical trends, each past deleveraging like this has provided good opportunities for the short to medium term.”
Crypto “demand crisis” emerges
Continuing, fellow CryptoQuant contributor Kriptolik eyed increasingly active derivatives markets overall since November 2024.
Related: Peak ‘FUD’ hints at $70K floor — 5 Things to know in Bitcoin this week
Stablecoin reserves across derivatives exchanges are increasing, he revealed this week, even surpassing spot markets. This, however, is no recipe for price upside.
“When we analyze the volume and circulation of stablecoins, which act as fuel in the market, we see that despite a rapid increase in total stablecoin supply since November 2024, this has not necessarily benefited the market or investors significantly,” another blog post explains.
Kriptolik described spot markets as suffering a “demand crisis.”
“Until this distribution normalizes, avoiding high-leverage (high-risk) trades may be the most prudent approach,” he added.
Exchange stablecoin reserves (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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