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In a recent appearance on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” Tom Lee, Fundstrat Capital CIO and head of research, suggested that Bitcoin may still have a ways to fall before posting a substantial recovery. During the January 13 segment, Lee spoke about the broader market concerns—such as inflation, bond yields, and earnings—before drawing a parallel to the crypto space, specifically Bitcoin’s trajectory.
Could Bitcoin Crash Into The $50,000s?
“Bitcoin is down roughly 15% from its highs which for a hyper volatile asset is a normal correction and following global liquidity. We are early in the halving cycle,” Lee remarked, underscoring that price swings of this magnitude are common in the digital assets realm. He also elaborated on technical markers indicating future volatility, stating, “One level would be $70,000.”
A less likely scenario, but still possible, is a crash into the $50,000s. “It could go as low as the $50,000s. But that’s again not a new level. That’s where it touches before it begins to rally,” Lee remarked.
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Lee’s perspective paints a picture of a two-pronged price movement for Bitcoin: a potential drop to the “$50,000s,” followed by a climb that could reach, in his words, “maybe $200,000 or $250,000.” He noted that despite the possibility of a downward move, long-term holders should not be deterred.
“Bitcoin is something you need to be long-term focused on. I don’t think anyone is losing money buying here at $90,000. If they are trying to time this, maybe they get lucky and it goes to $70,000 but to me, Bitcoin could be significantly higher this year, maybe $200,000 or $250,000. So, I think $90,000 is still a great entry point,” the Fundstrat CEO stated.
Lee’s remarks came amid a broader discussion on market dynamics. The conversation opened with the recent dip in equities and whether the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause rate cuts might spook investors. Lee pointed to upcoming inflation data as a critical pivot, explaining, “We’ve been correcting now for almost a month… I would like to see CPI come in below 2.5% or so. I think that would give that jolt of confidence to markets on top of earnings.”
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He went on to highlight what he sees as short-term noise around inflation statistics, which have been muddled by external events such as hurricanes and fires. “The hurricanes last year have muddled some of the inflation quality because for instance, hotel reservations would go up… It will muddle used car prices as well,” Lee said, adding that once these anomalies clear, overall inflation could register lower.
In discussing Federal Reserve policy, Lee maintained a balanced stance, saying, “I think the best case is the Fed doing one cut because the economy’s strong enough and they are still dovish… They will make their way to neutral. If they push the cuts to 2026 and 2027, that’s a longer rate to support markets.” He believes the markets remain sensitive to policy uncertainty, particularly under a new administration.
When asked whether stocks were overvalued, Lee drew a parallel to bond yields: “To me, the ten-year even if it gets to 5%, is a 20 PE multiple on a ten-year bond… The median PE is 17 times. I think stocks are giving you much better value than a bond right now.”
At press time, BTC traded at $95,618.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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