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As Bitcoin (BTC) consolidates above the significant $100,000 milestone, previously a challenging resistance level to breach, market analysts are closely monitoring its potential for further price increases and the possibility of new all-time highs (ATHs).
A critical threshold of $109,000 looms in the near future for the market’s leading cryptocurrency, but the clock may be ticking as experts warn of an impending bear market that could emerge within just three months.
Analyst Warns Of Imminent Bear Market For Bitcoin
Market expert and technical analyst Ali Martinez raised concerns in a recent social media post on X (formerly Twitter), based on historical patterns observed following Bitcoin’s Halving events.
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The analyst suggests that Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market could enter a bear cycle approximately 90 days from now. This prediction is grounded in the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price movements, particularly during Halving years, which historically have been followed by significant corrections.
As further seen in the chart above, Martinez points out that examining the total days of each BTC Halving cycle reveals a striking resemblance to the previous cycle between 2012 and 2016, which lasted 367 days before entering a bear market.
As of now, Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market is at 276 days into this cycle, suggesting that a downturn may be closer than some investors anticipate.
Will Prices Reach $200,000 Before The Drop?
Further analysis from Martinez incorporates the Wyckoff Method, a technical analysis framework that identifies market cycles.
According to this method, Bitcoin may be approaching its final leg up before entering the Distribution Phase, a period of consolidation before a price decline.
In this phase, Ali Martinez predicts that the BTC price could trade between $140,000 and $200,000 before experiencing a significant drop back toward the $100,000 level.
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But despite these cautionary forecasts, Martinez also notes that there remains potential for growth in the short term. He draws comparisons to the 2015-2018 cycle, asserting that Bitcoin’s price action at this juncture shares striking similarities with that period, which eventually led to parabolic price increases.
Additionally, the Mayer Multiple, a metric that gauges Bitcoin’s overbought conditions, is currently being scrutinized. Historically, the Mayer Multiple has indicated market tops when Bitcoin trades above the 2.4 oscillator.
Presently, this level sits near $182,000, suggesting that Bitcoin still has room for growth before reaching a potential market peak this cycle.
At the time of writing, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap is trading at $102,900, down over 1.5% in the 24-hour time frame.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
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