Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have released their latest approval odds for spot altcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in 2025, with Litecoin emerging as the strongest contender.
Seyffart believes that the Litecoin ETF has the highest probability of approval since the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) does not classify it as a security.
Why Litecoin Is Leading the Pack
“Balchunas and I took a look at the filings for spot crypto ETFs. We’re putting out relatively high odds of approval across the board,” Seyffart stated in a February 10 X post. According to the analysis, the Litecoin ETF filings submitted by Canary Capital and Grayscale hold a 90% chance of approval.
This projection follows the SEC’s recent acknowledgment of 19b-4 forms for Litecoin ETFs. Balchunas previously noted that the altcoin’s product meets all regulatory requirements, making it unlikely that the financial watchdog will reject the filings.
The analysts also attribute Litecoin’s strong position to its origins as a Bitcoin fork, sharing the same proof-of-work consensus mechanism and having no pre-sale history. Behind it, Dogecoin ETF filings were assigned a 75% approval probability, while Solana and XRP ETFs were estimated to have a 70% and 65% chance, respectively.
Balchunas highlighted on Monday that the overall outlook for altcoin ETFs has improved significantly since Trump’s election victory last November. Before then, approval odds for all assets except Litecoin were below 5%. He further expects the current chances to rise as the process unfolds.
He also pointed out that their current analysis focuses on 1933 Act filings, like BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF, but alternative structures, such as 40 Act futures-based ETFs or Cayman-subsidiary funds, could emerge.
XRP and Solana ETF Approvals
However, uncertainties remain over Solana and XRP’s security classifications, which could impact their approval processes. Seyffart noted that an XRP ETF is unlikely to be approved until the SEC’s ongoing lawsuit against Ripple is resolved.
While a court ruled in August 2023 that XRP is not a security when traded on secondary markets, the SEC has since appealed the decision, arguing that Ripple violated securities laws when selling the token to retail investors.
Similarly, Solana’s classification as a security remains unclear, preventing the financial watchdog from evaluating it under a “commodities ETF wrapper.”
However, these decisions were made under the leadership of former SEC Chair Gary Gensler. The expert pointed out that Commissioner Hester Peirce’s Crypto Task Force could reassess the classification of the two tokens as securities by the end of 2025.
As for the regulator’s review process, he mentioned that filings for both XRP and Dogecoin ETFs are expected to be acknowledged this week.
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