In late 2023, Solana (SOL) was in the vanguard of the emerging cryptocurrency bull market, and in April 2025, the token appears to be at the speartip of a dreaded bear market.
The most recent volatility has been accompanied by an alarming drop in the number of active SOL addresses, which have, by April 11, hit a 2025 low at approximately 1.67 million, per the data FInbold retrieved from Dune Analytics via The Block’s on-chain metrics.
The dramatic price drop – Solana is, at $117.99, 55.06% below the January 18 high of $262.56 – paired with the decline in the number of addresses is an alarming signal for cryptocurrency investors as it could signal a simultaneous loss of confidence and interest.
Still, recent trading has seen a spike in volume, signaling the network remains active. At the same time, April 11 figures retrieved by Finbold from Coinalyze demonstrate that nearly 75% of traffic in the last 24 hours has been related to long positions, signaling an overall bullish attitude.
Why a Solana crash might be imminent
Elsewhere, there has been a notable increase in the short volume in the shorter timeframes, signaling a potential downward correction might be imminent.
A potential trigger for such a price move could be Alameda Research’s April 11 unlocking of 186,326 SOL, as the bankrupt and disgraced cryptocurrency company could trigger significant selling pressure, either directly or through panic selling executed by other traders.
Is Solana headed below $100?
Nonetheless, the situation remains uncertain, indicating that SOL could be driven by the movements of the broader market. The overall performance of digital assets as a sector hints that the driving forces are likely to be external.
So far, 2025 has featured numerous positive developments, primarily regarding the regulatory landscape, but cryptocurrencies have mostly traded on negative macroeconomic news.
The Liberation Day announcement has caused an especially large bloodbath and triggered significant volatility, with more pain likely ahead despite President Donald Trump’s tariff pause.
China’s decision to match the U.S. 125% tariff – and the decision to exclude the People’s Republic from the 90-day pause – could generate substantial selling pressure as the trade relationship between the two countries is all but guaranteed to squeeze Americans’ daily finances, leaving less room for risk assets.
SOL’s latest rally remains trivial compared to 2025 losses
Such a bearish outlook is further backed by Solana’s performance since the start of 2025. While Ethereum (ETH) has been generally noted for its unexpectedly disappointing price movements, SOL suffered an even greater drop and is 37.72% down year-to-date (YTD) to $117.99.
Furthermore, while April 11 price certainly appears like a positive reversal given the token found itself at lows near $97 as recently as April 7, the latest rally is almost invisible in the mid and long-term charts.
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