BitMEX founder and crypto veteran Arthur Hayes is laying out bullish outlooks for Bitcoin (BTC), Dogecoin (DOGE) and the broader digital asset market cycle.
In a new discussion on the Alpha Only podcast, Hayes says traditional finance (TradFi) firms could be what triggers froth and a subsequent collapse in crypto valuations.
Hayes says TradFi will see crypto going up, and end up allocating through the big companies and projects. But as the market cycle continues and many projects become overvalued, Hayes says the investors will most likely begin to chase less legitimate projects, creating massive gaps between price and reality.
“And so in the beginning, the credit is well allocated, there are good uses for it. But as we get longer in the tooth for the rally, then you start allocating credit to dogsh*t because you have to allocate to get paid and that’s when you find, whatever the hottest pocket is where you see way too much money going into it, they’re probably taking some risk in their business model that’s predicated on the price always going up and that’s where you get the sort of dislocation.
I don’t know where that’s going to be yet, I don’t think we’re there yet in terms of a sector that’s so hot that all this debt capital is going into it from especially the TradFi space, and I think that’s where you have to be cognizant of the risk of a washout of people if the prices don’t match up to reality.”
When the market does become frothy, the Maelstrom CIO says Bitcoin will likely be at much higher prices.
“I think we’ll be at $100,000 by the end of the year and I’ll probably say by the end of 2025, $250,000.”
Hayes also thinks Dogecoin could “for sure” go to $1 and is generally optimistic on memes and memecoins at large.
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