Crypto markets remained relatively stable over the weekend but have dipped into the red again on Monday morning as another potentially volatile week begins.
Last week, markets were rattled by US President Trump’s abrupt tariff announcements, but there was a little reprieve after encouraging inflation data with the CPI report coming in below expectations.
However, the Consumer Sentiment Index continued its three-month slide, falling to its lowest level since November 2022 as recession fears mount.
“Wednesday marks the second Fed interest rate decision of 2025, at a pivotal point in time,” commented the Kobeissi Letter.
Economic Events March 17 to 21
February’s Retail Sales report will be released on Monday, offering insights into the amount of money consumers are spending on both durable and non-durable goods. This data is a leading indicator of the economy’s overall health and inflationary factors on the demand side.
There are reports for industrial production showing the volume of production of US industries like manufacturing, mining, utilities, and housing starting figures on Tuesday; however, these have a low impact.
All eyes will be on the US central bank on Wednesday as policymakers are widely expected to keep interest rates flat at the policy meeting. Fed officials are reluctant to make any monetary policy moves while they wait to see the effect of Trump’s economic policies.
According to the CME Fed Watch tool, there is a 99% chance that rates will remain unchanged at 4.25% to $4.5%.
Key Events This Week:
1. February Retail Sales data – Monday
2. February Housing Starts data – Tuesday
3. Fed Interest Rate Decision/Statement – Wednesday
4. Initial Jobless Claims data – Thursday
5. Philly Fed Manufacturing data – Thursday
6. February Existing Home Sales…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 16, 2025
RBC Global Asset Management’s Andrzej Skiba said that more tariffs are likely to follow suit, adding, “This will be inflationary, and the Fed won’t likely be able to cut rates in this environment.”
CryptoPotato reported that Trump’s “short-term pain” plan is a likely attempt at weakening markets with a longer-term goal of reducing inflation and interest rates.
Crypto Market Outlook
Crypto market capitalization has shrunk by a further 3.3% on the day in a fall to $2.8 trillion at the time of writing, with declines accelerating during Monday morning trading in Asia.
Bitcoin dipped to $82,000 before recovering slightly to reclaim $83,000 at the time of writing. The asset remains down almost 11% over the past fortnight.
Ethereum remains in bear market territory, having fallen below $1,900 again and with very few signs of recovery.
The altcoins were predominantly in the red, with larger losses for Solana (SOL) and Pi Network (PI), while Shiba Inu (SHIB) and Polkadot (DOT) were showing minor gains.
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