- AUD/USD moves away from over a one-month high touched on Thursday.
- The downtick lacks any fundamental catalyst and is likely to remain limited.
- Australian Retail Sales data does little to provide any impetus to the major.
- Traders now look to China’s Caixin Service PMI ahead of the US NFP report.
The AUD/USD pair extends the previous day’s late pullback from the 0.6455 area, or over a one-month high and remains under some selling pressure through the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.6420-0.6415 region, down over 0.10% for the day, and for now, seem to have snapped a two-day winning streak.
The downtick, meanwhile, could be attributed to a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick amid some repositioning trade ahead of the closely-watched US monthly employment details, due for release later during the early North American session. The popularly known NFP report, in particular wage growth figures, could influence market expectations about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) future rate-hike path. This, in turn, will drive the USD demand and provide a fresh directional impetus to the AUD/USD pair.
Heading into the key data risk, expectations that the Fed may be done raising interest rates might keep a lid on any meaningful upside for the USD. Apart from this, the prevalent risk-on environment might hold back traders from placing bullish bets around the safe-haven Greenback and act as a tailwind for the risk-sensitive Aussie. This, along with bets for more interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), supports prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying around the AUD/USD pair.
In the meantime, data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that Australia’s Retail Sales, a measure of the country’s consumer spending, rose 0.2% QoQ in the third quarter as compared to a 0.6% drop in the previous quarter. The data, meanwhile, does little to provide any meaningful impetus to the AUD/USD pair. Next on tap is the release of Caixin China Services PMI, which could assist traders to grab short-term opportunities, though the immediate reaction is likely to be limited.
From a technical perspective, the previous day’s sustained strength and close above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), for the first time since July, adds credence to the positive outlook. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside. Hence, a move towards testing the 100-day SMA hurdle, currently pegged just above the 0.6500 psychological mark, looks like a distinct possibility. Nevertheless, the AUD/USD pair seems poised to end in the green for the third straight week.
Technical levels to watch
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