If history is to repeat now, XRP could go beyond $3.00.
Ripple’s cross-border token became one of the most volatile assets in the cryptocurrency space after the 2024 presidential elections in the US, going from $0.60 to over $3.60 within less than a year, before it crashed to $1.11 earlier this month.
Following this 70% decline from July 2025 to February 2026, the token has seen its “largest on-chain realized loss spike since 2022,” said Santiment. However, this could be a blessing in disguise for token holders.
The analyst from the analytics company noted that the last time such massive realized losses were recorded, of -$1.93 billion, the underlying asset exploded by 114% in the following eight months. If such a spectacular price increase is to repeat now, it would put XRP’s valuation at over $3.00.
“Significant realized losses happen when a large number of investors sell their coins at a price lower than what they originally paid. This usually coincides with fear taking over. When traders panic and capitulate, they lock in their losses instead of holding and hoping for a rebound,” explained the company.
However, the analysts added that while this might feel negative in the short-term, it can be an important price signal for the longer run.
If the so-called weak hands have already sold, fewer sellers are left to push the asset lower. Or, as Santiment put it: “a wave of heavy realized loss can mean that much of the damage has already been done.”
Additionally, the analysis reads that such large increases in realized losses occur near market bottoms because “extreme fear tends to peak before price does.”
“Once sellers are exhausted, even a small amount of new buying pressure can push prices higher. That does not guarantee an immediate rally, but it increases the probability of a bounce. “
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