OpenAI has been at the center of attention in the artificial-intelligence world after the dramatic firing and swift return of CEO Sam Altman. The reason behind his firing is still unknown, but there has been speculation that it was triggered by a significant breakthrough in AI.
Reuters reported last week that OpenAI staff researchers wrote a letter to the board warning an internal project named Q*, or Q-Star, could represent a breakthrough in creating AI that could surpass human intelligence in a range of fields. That letter was sent ahead of Altman’s firing. Altman couldn’t be immediately reached for comment.
The thought that OpenAI is on the brink of creating genuinely intelligent machines, and all the risks that involves, might be too hasty.
Neither OpenAI nor its largest backer
Microsoft
(ticker: MSFT) have publicly confirmed the existence of Q*, much less the possibility that it is a dangerous breakthrough in AI technology. OpenAI didn’t respond to requests for comment.
These sorts of claims aren’t new, either. A Google engineer claimed in 2022 that an unreleased AI system had become sentient. The claim caused a brief flurry of excitement before the engineer was fired and the company denied the claim.
The only detail given in the report about Q*’s capabilities was that it could solve certain mathematical problems at the level of grade-school students. That has led to skepticism about how serious an advance Q* could be. Elon Musk suggested his own Grok chatbot could outdo Q* by both solving math problems and fundamental philosophical questions.
There has been plenty of speculation about what Q* might actually represent. The speculation has mostly centered on the theory that Q* is a combination of two types of algorithm. The first is Q-learning, an algorithm for reinforcement learning, or trial-and-error methods. The second is A*, an algorithm that improves the efficiency of a search for a solution by effectively looking ahead to potential obstacles, which can minimize computation costs.
Combining search and learning technologies has been the source of significant AI advances before. Jim Fan, a research scientist at
Nvidia
(NVDA), noted that such a combination was what enabled the development of AlphaGo, the AI that became the best player in the world at the Chinese game of Go in 2017.
However, it’s a big leap to suggest OpenAI is closer to achieving a new kind of intelligence.
“Nothing says Q* will be more creative in writing poetry, telling jokes, or role playing. Improving creativity is a fundamentally human thing, so I believe natural data will still outperform synthetic ones,” Fan said on social media platform X, formerly called Twitter.
On the other hand, if OpenAI has made a significant advance in AI, Microsoft, a major investor in OpenAI, would stand to benefit.
“We believe that the OpenAI board shakeup and [Microsoft CEO] Nadella’s increased involvement should put Microsoft in front of the line for commercializing a potential OpenAI AGI even if Microsoft does not own exclusive rights,” wrote D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria in a research note on Monday.
Luria has a Buy rating and $415 target price on Microsoft. Shares of the tech company were up 0.1% to $377.66 in Monday morning trading.
OpenAI is still planning an employee share sale that is expected to value the company at $86 billion, according to the Financial Times, citing investors with knowledge of the matter. That would be a healthy boost for the valuation of Microsoft’s 49% stake in the company. Microsoft has invested around $13 billion in OpenAI.
Write to Adam Clark at adam.clark@barrons.com
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