Australian Dollar (AUD) could continue to decline vs US Dollar (USD), but the major support at 0.6190 could be just out of reach. In the longer run, further AUD declines seem likely; the level to monitor is 0.6190, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Further AUD declines seem likely
24-HOUR VIEW: “While we pointed out yesterday that ‘the risk for AUD is on the downside,’ we were of the view that ‘any decline may not break the major support at 0.6280.’ AUD then dropped but held above 0.6280 until the NY session when it plunged to 0.6232. Today, AUD could continue to decline, but the major support at 0.6190 could be just out of reach. Resistance levels are at 0.6255 and 0.6275.”
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Yesterday, 27 Feb, when AUD was at 0.6310, we highlighted that it ‘could edge lower, but it must break clearly below 0.6280 before a move to 0.6255 can be expected.’ We also highlighted that ‘the likelihood of AUD breaking clearly below 0.6280 will remain intact provided that the ‘strong resistance’ level at 0.6375 is not breached.’ We did not expect the subsequent sharp drop that sent AUD to a low of 0.6232. Further declines seem likely, and the level to monitor is 0.6190. On the upside, the ‘strong resistance’ level has moved lower to 0.6305 from 0.6375.”
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