Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic noted on Monday that although the US labor market remains surprisingly resilient, tariff threats throw a wrench in outlook expectations.
Key highlights
The current degree of uncertainty has broadened considerably.
Tariffs are an aspect of uncertainty; it is challenging to figure out how to incorporate it.
Because things are changing so rapidly, the most important thing to do is ask questions of business contacts, and look at possible other outcomes.
Maintaining end-2024 solid outlook, monitoring the economy.
The emphasis is still on inflation.
The US can support a much tighter labor market than was previously understood.
The outlook is for inflation to continue to fall.
I’m not expecting path to 2% inflation will be a straight line.
There’s a compelling reason to expect housing inflation to fall.
The outlook is for job market to remain solid.
The labor market right now is not a constraint on business.
I want to see what the 100 bps of cuts last year translates to in the economy.
Uncertainty has been increasing; want to be cautious and not have policy lean in a direction and have to switch.
How long it takes to get to neutral depends on how the economy evolves.
I see the nominal neutral rate at 3%-3.5%.
I’m prepared to wait for a while to cut again.
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