With the crypto market halfway through this bull cycle, the amount of bitcoin readily available for sale is shrinking faster relative to demand growth. On-chain analysis by the market intelligence firm CryptoQuant revealed that the bitcoin market is currently experiencing a demand shock because demand growth is accelerating and supply is shrinking.
According to a weekly CryptoQuant report, bitcoin apparent demand has been expanding since late September at a monthly rate of 228,000 BTC, while the total amount of BTC readily available for sale across crypto exchanges, over-the-counter (OTC) desks, miners, and the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has declined to levels not seen since October 2020.
BTC Demand Is Eating Supply Inventory
The balance of BTC accumulator addresses, which refer to investors who buy BTC and have never sold any, is expanding monthly at a record-high rate of 495,000 BTC.
Bitcoin demand growth has led to inventory levels at OTC desks declining by the largest monthly volume in 2024 for the first time since April 25. Bitcoin OTC desks’ monthly inventory has fallen by -26,000 BTC this year, with an additional 40,000 BTC decline in tier balance since November 20.
“OTC desks source Bitcoin mostly for institutions and large buyers. If Bitcoin demand is outpacing supply, then OTC desks’ Bitcoin balances will decline, and vice versa. Right now, their balances are declining as demand outpaces supply,” CryptoQuant stated.
Sell-side Liquidity Falls to 2020 Levels
As demand continues to rise, so does liquidity in the industry. The total market cap of USD-based stablecoins recently crossed $200 billion for the first time, representing a 20% or $35 billion increase since late October. This reflects an influx of liquidity and fresh money in the crypto market. The growth also coincided with BTC rallying above $100,000 to $108,000. The crypto asset was worth $96,700 at the time of writing, per data from CoinMarketCap.
Furthermore, bitcoin sell-side liquidity now hovers around 3.397 million BTC, the lowest level in over four years. This liquidity has shrunk even further by 678,000 BTC so far this year, greatly reducing the potential for selling pressure.
Moreover, the liquidity inventory ratio, a metric that measures how many months of demand the current sell-side inventory covers, has fallen to 6.6 months from 41 months recorded at the beginning of October. CryptoQuant explained that a declining sell-side inventory ratio coincided with the BTC rallies witnessed in the first and fourth quarters of 2024.
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