- GBP/JPY has fallen to a trendline for the August rally.
- The pair is in a downtrend with odds favoring an extension lower.
GBP/JPY is trying to pierce the trendline for the uptrend since the August lows. If it is successful and decisively breaches the trendline, it will suggest a follow-through lower to a fresh downside target at 186.20, the 61.8% Fibonacci of the down move prior to the trendline (blue rectangle on chart).
The pair is now in a short and probably medium-term downtrend (since the October 31 high) and according to technical analysis lore trends have a tendency to extend, suggesting the odds favor even more downside to come.
GBP/JPY Daily Chart
GBP/JPY is making its way down to the next target for the pair at around 189.56, the low of the Right-Angled triangle that formed in late September and early October.
It is also possible it could bounce from the current level at the trendline which is a support level.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is not yet oversold which indicates the pair could still have further to fall before it gets oversold.
A decisive breach of the trendline would be one accompanied by a long red candlestick that closed near its lows and well clear of the trendline, or three consecutive red candles that breached the level.
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