China’s National Day Golden Week holidays (1-7 Oct) generate the largest domestic tourism spending and trips amongst its major holidays which also include the Spring Festival (Jan/Feb) and Labour Day (May). Domestic tourism activities remained positive this year while there were also reports of stronger outbound and inbound travel during the period, UOB Group’s economist Ho Woei Chen notes.
National Day holiday statistics suggest no major uplift from stimulus yet
“Domestic tourism activities remained positive while there were also reports of stronger outbound and inbound travel during the National Day holidays in China (1-7 Oct). Compared to the previous year, both the domestic tourist trips made (+5.9%) and revenue (+6.3%) rose but the per trip spend was near flat (+0.4%).”
“China’s NDRC did not announce new stimulus measures at its briefing on Tue (8 Oct). The key messaging indicates China’s confidence to achieve its official growth target of ‘around 5%’ this year. We keep our GDP growth forecast for China at 4.9% in 2024, with a projected growth of 4.7% in 3Q24 and 4.8% in 4Q24. We expect the expansion pace to moderate further to 4.6% in 2025.”
“Fiscal stimulus is a key area that market will be watching for further support to consumption and investment, with estimates at around CNY2 tn (1.6% of GDP). The PBOC-led stimulus announced ahead of the National Day holidays is estimated to deliver at least CNY3 tn (2.3% of GDP) boost to the economy.”
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