- DXY gave up some ground and fell to 100.60.
- Conference Board consumer confidence data for September missed expectations.
- Fed speakers are battling the current market’s dovish expectations.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of six currencies, posted some losses on Tuesday after the release of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence data. In the meantime, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials seem to be trying to push back on the market’s aggressive dovish bets.
The US economy exhibits mixed signals with indications of both a slowdown and ongoing resilience. Economic activity appears to be moderating, but some sectors remain strong. The Fed has indicated that the trajectory of its monetary policy will be guided by the evolving economic data, suggesting that the pace of rate adjustments will depend on the incoming information.
Daily digest market movers: US Dollar declines after CB Consumer Confidence surprise, Fed speakers
- US Consumer Confidence unexpectedly plunged in September, falling below expectations to 98.7.
- Market anticipates excessive Fed easing, pricing in 75 bps of cuts by year-end and 175-200 bps over the next year.
- Some Fed officials, including Neel Kashkari from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and Michelle Bowman, are pushing back against dovish market expectations.
- Bowman dissented from the recent 50 bps rate cut, preferring a 25 bps reduction and warning that a larger cut might hinder the inflation fight.
- She highlighted ongoing inflation risks, including supply chain disruptions and fiscal policy, and remains cautious about the strength of the labor market.
- Other Fed officials, like Raphael Bostic from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Austan Goolsbee from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, express concerns about the labor market and support faster rate cuts.
- Markets continue to bet strongly on 75 bps of easing this year.
- On the positive side for the USD, divergence in global growth favors the US Dollar, with the eurozone, Australia and China showing signs of weakness.
- US 10-year benchmark rate retreated from September highs, currently trading at 3.75%.
DXY technical outlook: DXY holds bearish momentum, bulls struggle
Technical analysis for the DXY index reveals a bearish trend, supported by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at around 40 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) printing decreasing green bars. With the index below the 20,100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), the technical outlook remains clearly bearish. A break above the 20-day SMA would improve the outlook somewhat
Support levels exist at 100.50, 100.30 and 100.00, while resistance levels are at 101.00, 101.30 and 101.60.
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